HOW TO READ PREDICTION MARKET ODDS (2026 GUIDE)

What does a $0.62 contract mean?

It means the market implies a 62% probability of the event happening. If it resolves YES, you get $1 per contract; if NO, $0.

TL;DR:

A YES contract price is the implied probability of the event. $0.34 = 34%. YES + NO should sum to ~$1.00; the gap is the spread. Expected value = (your probability − market probability) × payout. No edge, no trade.

Price = probability

Every YES contract trades between $0.01 and $0.99. Multiply by 100 and you have the implied probability. $0.34 = 34% chance.

YES and NO prices on a binary market should sum to roughly $1.00. The gap is the spread — your cost to enter and exit. Once you can read a price, the next step is figuring out where to trade these odds at the lowest cost.

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Expected value in one line

EV = (your probability − market probability) × payout. If you believe an event is 60% likely and the market prices it at 45%, every $1 of YES is worth $1.33 long-run. That's edge.

No edge, no trade. The fees and spreads will grind you down otherwise.

Spotting mispriced markets

Look for thin markets the algos haven't found, news the crowd hasn't processed, and binary events with structural bias (home-team optimism, recency, headline overreaction).

Cross-check against public data — Google Trends, polling aggregators, on-chain flows. Note the limit of that idea: the 2025 'd4vd' trade that made $1M in 24 hours turned out to be an alleged insider trade — a Google engineer was charged by the DOJ in May 2026 — so public-data edges are legal, non-public ones are not.

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Frequently asked questions

What does a $0.62 contract mean?

It means the market implies a 62% probability of the event happening. If it resolves YES, you get $1 per contract; if NO, $0.

Why don't YES and NO always add up to exactly $1?

The gap is the spread — bid/ask depth plus market maker margin. Tight, liquid markets get within a cent; thin markets can be 5+ cents apart, which is where much of your cost lives.

How do I know if a market is mispriced?

Build your own probability estimate first (model, polls, base rates). If your estimate differs from the market by more than the spread plus fees, you have theoretical edge.

Do Kalshi and Polymarket show odds differently?

Both show YES/NO cents. Kalshi displays some markets as US-style probability percentages; Polymarket almost always shows the raw contract price.