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Economy Prediction Markets

Fed rates, inflation prints, GDP, recession odds — macro markets are where institutions are hedging.

Where can you trade economy prediction markets?

Fed rates, inflation prints, GDP, recession odds — macro markets are where institutions are hedging. US traders can access these markets on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, real USD, 47 states + DC) or Polymarket (US app, iOS only). The example contracts below are illustrative of what trades in this category — check the exchange for live prices.

TL;DR
Fed rates, inflation prints, GDP, recession odds — macro markets are where institutions are hedging.

Why economy markets matter

Kalshi's Fed and CPI markets often move before the official release as flows leak in. Polymarket's recession contracts have been within 3 percentage points of the eventual NBER call on the last two cycles.

Best platforms for economy

K

Kalshi

CFTC-regulated, US-focused

The only CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US. Real USD deposits, no minimum balance, markets across politics, economics, sports, and weather. Trade $25 and get $25 with code WINPREDITCS.

P

Polymarket

CFTC-licensed, highest liquidity, $50 bonus

One of the world's two largest prediction markets by volume. CFTC-licensed and available to US traders via its iPhone app (iOS only — no desktop trading), with billions in liquidity, near-zero fees, and thousands of markets across politics, sports, crypto, and culture. Deposit $10 and get a $50 trading bonus with code WINPREDICTS.

Example markets

Illustrative examples of contract types in this category. Prices and volumes are not live — open Kalshi or Polymarket for current quotes.

Kalshi
Fed cuts rates in June 2026?
YES 71¢NO 29¢
$24.6M
Kalshi
US CPI above 3.0% in May print?
YES 28¢NO 72¢
$8.9M
Polymarket
US recession declared in 2026?
YES 19¢NO 81¢
$14.2M

Related guides

Beginner

How to Read Prediction Market Odds (2026 Guide)

Contract prices, implied probability, expected value, and how to spot when the market is wrong.

Intermediate

How to Actually Make Money on Prediction Markets

Edge, bankroll, process. The unglamorous habits that separate winning traders from gamblers.

Latest in economy

Economy
Polymarket: Fed decision in April?

4-outcome event has accumulated $64,640,989 in total volume. Liquidity stands at $3.6M.

Economy
Markets Pricing 70% Chance of Fed Rate Cut by June

Prediction market contracts tracking Federal Reserve policy moves show sharply rising odds of a 25bps cut at the June FOMC meeting.

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