Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Here's how they work, why they're surprisingly accurate, and how to start.
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market and Polymarket is CFTC-licensed and open to US traders in 49 states plus DC (Nevada excluded) as of 2026.
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A prediction market is a marketplace where participants buy and sell contracts on the outcome of future events — elections, Fed decisions, sports results, even the weather. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't.
The current price of a contract is the market's consensus probability. If 'Fed cuts rates in June' trades at $0.71, the market is pricing a 71% chance of a cut.
Pollsters and pundits don't lose money when they're wrong. Traders do. That financial incentive concentrates information faster than any single forecaster.
Decades of academic work — from the Iowa Electronic Markets to Robin Hanson's information-aggregation studies — show prediction markets routinely beat expert panels on accuracy.
The price isn't an opinion. It's the forecast.
In the US, both Kalshi and Polymarket are CFTC-licensed venues. Kalshi accepts real USD via ACH; Polymarket settles in USDC but is now open to US traders with the deepest global liquidity.
Mobile-first apps like Rebet offer a social, sports-heavy entry point for US users who want a lighter on-ramp before sizing up.
Pick a market you actually have a view on. Decide YES or NO. Check the spread and your downside (you can lose the full premium). Start small — $5–$20 — until the mechanics feel natural.
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market and Polymarket is CFTC-licensed and open to US traders in 49 states plus DC (Nevada excluded) as of 2026.
A YES contract trades between $0.01 and $0.99. The price is the market's implied probability — $0.62 means the crowd thinks the event has a 62% chance of happening. If it does, the contract settles at $1.
Legally no — the CFTC regulates them as event contracts, a form of derivative. Economically they share risk with betting, but the pricing mechanism aggregates information rather than paying out a fixed house edge.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket have low minimums. $10–$20 is enough to place several practice trades and learn the mechanics before sizing up.
No. Prediction market contracts are fully collateralized — your maximum loss on any position is the premium you paid.
Catie has spent 15 years covering iGaming, sports betting, and now prediction markets — first as a trade reporter, later as head of editorial at two major industry publications. She has tested every regulated US event exchange since Kalshi's 2021 launch and writes the bulk of PredictionWins' platform reviews and tax explainers.
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