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Prediction Markets and Taxes (US) — 2026 Guide

How Kalshi and Polymarket winnings are taxed, what forms to expect, and how to keep records the IRS will accept.

Do I pay taxes on Kalshi winnings?

Yes. Kalshi event contracts are taxed under IRC Section 1256 — 60% long-term / 40% short-term capital gains — regardless of how long you held. Kalshi issues a 1099-B.

By Catie Di StefanoUpdated Aug 20, 20269 min readEditorial policy

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TL;DR
Kalshi event contracts are Section 1256: 60% long-term / 40% short-term capital gains, regardless of holding period, reported on 1099-B. Polymarket (USDC-settled) treatment is still evolving — many CPAs report as ordinary income until formal 1099 guidance lands. Keep CSVs and transaction hashes. Talk to a CPA.

The short answer

Kalshi event contracts are taxed as Section 1256 contracts: 60% long-term / 40% short-term capital gains, regardless of how long you held. You'll receive a 1099-B at year end.

Polymarket is now CFTC-licensed in the US but settles in USDC. Treatment varies — many CPAs still report gains as ordinary income pending clearer 1099 guidance. Confirm with a tax pro.

This is general information, not tax advice. Talk to a CPA who handles crypto.

What to keep records of

For every position: market name, entry price, exit price, contracts, fees, and timestamps. Export Kalshi's activity CSV monthly. For Polymarket, save transaction hashes — they're the audit trail.

State considerations

Most states follow federal treatment for Section 1256 gains. A handful (NY, CA) have additional reporting for crypto-denominated activity. Check your state's guidance before April.

Frequently asked questions

Do I pay taxes on Kalshi winnings?

Yes. Kalshi event contracts are taxed under IRC Section 1256 — 60% long-term / 40% short-term capital gains — regardless of how long you held. Kalshi issues a 1099-B.

How are Polymarket winnings taxed?

Because Polymarket settles in USDC, treatment is still evolving. Many CPAs report gains as ordinary income today; some argue for Section 1256 given the CFTC license. Get advice from a crypto-savvy CPA.

Does Kalshi send a 1099?

Yes — Kalshi issues a 1099-B for the tax year in early spring, similar to a broker.

Do I have to report small wins?

Yes. All capital gains are technically reportable, no matter the amount. The 1099-B threshold doesn't change your reporting obligation.

Can I offset prediction market losses?

Section 1256 losses on Kalshi can offset other Section 1256 gains and carry back three years via Form 6781. Polymarket losses generally follow crypto capital-loss rules.

Sources & references

About the author
Catie Di Stefano
Editor-in-Chief, PredictionWins · 15+ yrs experience

Catie has spent 15 years covering iGaming, sports betting, and now prediction markets — first as a trade reporter, later as head of editorial at two major industry publications. She has tested every regulated US event exchange since Kalshi's 2021 launch and writes the bulk of PredictionWins' platform reviews and tax explainers.

Reviewed against our editorial policy.

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