How to read election betting odds on prediction markets, convert prices into probabilities, and trade them legally in the US.
On CFTC-licensed prediction markets: Kalshi (USD, 47 states + DC) and Polymarket (49 states + DC via its iOS app). PredictIt also lists political markets under a narrow no-action letter, capped at $850 per market.
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On a prediction market, every YES contract trades between $0.01 and $0.99. The price is the implied probability — a contract trading at $0.58 means traders collectively price the candidate at a 58% chance.
Prediction market 'odds' are just dollar prices between 1¢ and 99¢ — the price is the implied probability. No conversion math.
If you're used to American or decimal odds, here's the conversion: contract price $0.58 = 58% probability = decimal odds 1.72 = American odds −138. Our P&L calculator handles this automatically.
Two CFTC-regulated venues: Kalshi (USD via ACH, 47 states + DC) and Polymarket (US app, 49 states + DC). PredictIt operates under a narrow no-action letter with an $850 cap per market.
Polls capture a snapshot of intent; markets aggregate intent, expert opinion, and money. Iowa Electronic Markets beat major polls in 74% of US presidential races since 1988, and Polymarket called the 2024 race ahead of pollster consensus. See our how prediction markets work guide for the mechanics.
A 5¢ move in a flagship presidential market is significant. Watch for moves around debates, indictments, VP picks, and major polling releases. Mid-cycle moves of 10¢+ are rare and usually mean genuine new information.
On CFTC-licensed prediction markets: Kalshi (USD, 47 states + DC) and Polymarket (49 states + DC via its iOS app). PredictIt also lists political markets under a narrow no-action letter, capped at $850 per market.
Prediction market prices are quoted in dollars between $0.01 and $0.99 — the price equals the implied probability. A candidate at $0.62 has an implied 62% chance to win.
Generally yes. The Iowa Electronic Markets beat major polls in 74% of US presidential races since 1988, and Polymarket called the 2024 winner days before mainstream pollster consensus.
Yes, on CFTC-regulated venues. Kalshi and Polymarket both offer legal real-money election markets to US residents. A 2024 federal appeals court ruling upheld Kalshi's right to list these markets.
On Kalshi and Polymarket, you can buy a single contract for as little as $0.01–$0.99. Practically, $5–$20 is a reasonable starter size while you learn.
Catie has spent 15 years covering iGaming, sports betting, and now prediction markets — first as a trade reporter, later as head of editorial at two major industry publications. She has tested every regulated US event exchange since Kalshi's 2021 launch and writes the bulk of PredictionWins' platform reviews and tax explainers.
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