ELECTION BETTING ODDS EXPLAINED: HOW TO READ & WHERE TO TRADE

Where can I bet on the 2028 presidential election?

On CFTC-licensed prediction markets: Kalshi (USD, 47 states + DC) and Polymarket (49 states + DC via its app). PredictIt also lists political markets under a narrow no-action letter, capped at $850 per market.

TL;DR:

Election betting odds on prediction markets are quoted as contract prices between $0.01 and $0.99 — the price equals the implied probability. In the US, Kalshi and Polymarket are the two CFTC-licensed venues offering real-money election markets.

What election betting odds mean

On a prediction market, every YES contract trades between $0.01 and $0.99. The price is the implied probability — a contract trading at $0.58 means traders collectively price the candidate at a 58% chance.

Prediction market 'odds' are just dollar prices between 1¢ and 99¢ — the price is the implied probability. No conversion math.

Polymarket: deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus with code WIN

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Converting between odds formats

If you're used to decimal odds, here's the conversion: contract price $0.58 = 58% probability = decimal odds 1.72. Our P&L calculator handles this automatically.

Where to trade election markets legally in the US

Two CFTC-regulated venues: Kalshi (USD via ACH, 47 states + DC) and Polymarket (US app, 49 states + DC). PredictIt operates under a narrow no-action letter with an $850 cap per market.

• Kalshi — best for presidential, Senate, House, and state-by-state markets in USD
• Polymarket — deepest liquidity on flagship presidential markets globally
• PredictIt — political only, $850 cap, useful for niche state races

Why election markets are usually more accurate than polls

Polls capture a snapshot of intent; markets aggregate intent, expert opinion, and money. Iowa Electronic Markets beat major polls in 74% of US presidential races since 1988, and Polymarket called the 2024 race ahead of pollster consensus. See our how prediction markets work guide for the mechanics.

How to read movement on election odds

A 5¢ move in a flagship presidential market is significant. Watch for moves around debates, indictments, VP picks, and major polling releases. Mid-cycle moves of 10¢+ are rare and usually mean genuine new information.

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Frequently asked questions

Where can I bet on the 2028 presidential election?

On CFTC-licensed prediction markets: Kalshi (USD, 47 states + DC) and Polymarket (49 states + DC via its app). PredictIt also lists political markets under a narrow no-action letter, capped at $850 per market.

How do you read election betting odds?

Prediction market prices are quoted in dollars between $0.01 and $0.99 — the price equals the implied probability. A candidate at $0.62 has an implied 62% chance to win.

Are election betting markets accurate?

Generally yes. The Iowa Electronic Markets beat major polls in 74% of US presidential races since 1988, and Polymarket called the 2024 winner days before mainstream pollster consensus.

Is election betting legal in the United States?

Available to eligible residents on CFTC-regulated venues (as of October 3, 2026); check current state rules. Kalshi and Polymarket both offer legal real-money election markets to US residents. A 2024 federal appeals court ruling upheld Kalshi's right to list these markets.

What's the minimum bet on an election market?

On Kalshi and Polymarket, you can buy a single contract for as little as $0.01–$0.99. Practically, $5–$20 is a reasonable starter size while you learn.