Step-by-step: how to legally bet on the 2028 US presidential election in 2026 using CFTC-regulated prediction markets.
Yes. A 2024 federal appeals court ruling cleared CFTC-regulated venues — Kalshi and Polymarket — to legally list US election contracts. Both are available to US residents.
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Yes. A 2024 federal appeals court ruling cleared the way for CFTC-regulated venues to list US election contracts. Kalshi and Polymarket are both legally available to US residents for political markets.
Two real options for US residents:
Both platforms require KYC (government ID, address). Kalshi takes minutes; Polymarket's app flow is similar. See our Polymarket walkthrough for the Polymarket onboarding details.
Kalshi: link a bank account via Plaid for ACH, or use a debit card. Polymarket: fund via card, Coinbase, or bridge USDC. Minimum funding is typically $10–$25.
Search 'Presidential' on Kalshi or Polymarket. You'll see top-line markets (overall winner, party winner) and state-by-state markets. Prices are quoted between $0.01 and $0.99 — the price is the implied probability.
Decide YES or NO, pick a position size, and confirm. You can sell at any time before resolution — you don't have to hold through the election.
Start small. $10–$25 is fine for a first political trade until the price-as-probability mental model clicks.
Kalshi: withdraw to your linked bank via ACH (1–3 business days). Polymarket: withdraw USDC, then off-ramp via Coinbase or similar. See Polymarket withdrawal guide.
PredictIt operates under a narrow CFTC no-action letter, capped at $850 per market. Useful for niche state-level races. Offshore books (Bovada, BetOnline) are not CFTC-regulated and put US residents in a legal gray area — we don't recommend them.
Yes. A 2024 federal appeals court ruling cleared CFTC-regulated venues — Kalshi and Polymarket — to legally list US election contracts. Both are available to US residents.
On Kalshi (USD via ACH, 47 states + DC) or Polymarket (debit/ACH via its app, 49 states + DC). PredictIt also lists political markets with an $850-per-market cap under a CFTC no-action letter.
You can buy a single contract for $0.01–$0.99. Practically, $10–$25 is a sensible starter position.
Almost any. Kalshi is live in 47 states + DC (Nevada, Michigan and Washington excluded); Polymarket is live in 49 + DC (Nevada excluded).
On CFTC-regulated venues, under Section 1256: 60% long-term, 40% short-term capital gains. Significantly more favorable than gambling-income treatment for most filers.
Catie has spent 15 years covering iGaming, sports betting, and now prediction markets — first as a trade reporter, later as head of editorial at two major industry publications. She has tested every regulated US event exchange since Kalshi's 2021 launch and writes the bulk of PredictionWins' platform reviews and tax explainers.
Reviewed against our editorial policy.
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