Climate Prediction Markets
Temperature records, hurricane landfalls, emissions targets — small markets, large edges.
Where can you trade climate prediction markets?
Temperature records, hurricane landfalls, emissions targets — small markets, large edges. US traders can access these markets on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, real USD, 47 states + DC) or Polymarket (CFTC-regulated US app, 49 states + DC). The example contracts below are illustrative of what trades in this category — check the exchange for live prices.
TL;DR:
Temperature records, hurricane landfalls, emissions targets — small markets, large edges.
Why climate markets matter
Climate markets are still thin, which means traders with NOAA / ECMWF data routinely find 10%+ mispricings the crowd hasn't corrected. To compare climate-market venues, start with venues that list NOAA-settled contracts.
Best platforms for climate
Example markets
Illustrative examples of contract types in this category. Prices and volumes are not live — open Kalshi or Polymarket for current quotes.
Kalshi
2026 hottest year on record (NOAA)?
YES 62¢ NO 38¢
$3.8M
Kalshi
Atlantic hurricane season above-normal (NOAA)?
YES 71¢ NO 29¢
$2.1M
Polymarket
First Cat-5 Atlantic hurricane by Sep 1?
YES 33¢ NO 67¢
$1.4M
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