Climate Prediction Markets
Temperature records, hurricane landfalls, emissions targets — small markets, large edges.
Where can you trade climate prediction markets?
Temperature records, hurricane landfalls, emissions targets — small markets, large edges. US traders can access these markets on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, real USD, 47 states + DC) or Polymarket (US app, iOS only). The example contracts below are illustrative of what trades in this category — check the exchange for live prices.
Why climate markets matter
Climate markets are still thin, which means traders with NOAA / ECMWF data routinely find 10%+ mispricings the crowd hasn't corrected. To compare climate-market venues, start with venues that list NOAA-settled contracts.
Best platforms for climate
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated, US-focused
The only CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US. Real USD deposits, no minimum balance, markets across politics, economics, sports, and weather. Trade $25 and get $25 with code WINPREDITCS.
Polymarket
CFTC-licensed, highest liquidity, $50 bonus
One of the world's two largest prediction markets by volume. CFTC-licensed and available to US traders via its iPhone app (iOS only — no desktop trading), with billions in liquidity, near-zero fees, and thousands of markets across politics, sports, crypto, and culture. Deposit $10 and get a $50 trading bonus with code WINPREDICTS.
Example markets
Illustrative examples of contract types in this category. Prices and volumes are not live — open Kalshi or Polymarket for current quotes.